First, an overview of the incident
Recently, according to the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association released information, including copper foil, electrolytic solvents, cobalt salts and other lithium battery raw material prices rose significantly, of which the solvent market sharp rise, DMC prices are reported at 8,500 RMB / ton , Or more than 50%. China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association that, according to past experience, sales of lithium batteries at the end of the year will not be very good, the price is generally weak mainly stable, and raw materials at the end of this year there will be significant price increases.
Second, analysis and judgment
Three quarters of new energy vehicle sales growth, lithium copper foil supply and demand is still outstanding
1, the new energy vehicle sales continued rapid growth Zoom in lithium battery power lithium battery demand. According to the Automobile Association data, 16Q3 domestic new energy vehicle sales of 118,000, an increase of 87.21%, growth of 6.53%, from January to September domestic sales of 288,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 113.68%. According to the first electric Institute data, the first half of this year, power battery shipments reached 6.67GWH, accounting for 42.5% last year, an increase of 1.45 times.
Pure electric vehicle hybrid vehicles equipped with more than the battery, the demand for lithium copper foil at least 10kg / vehicles.
With the continued heavy volume of new energy vehicles, lithium copper foil demand will continue to expand.
2, the new lithium copper foil production capacity is relatively lagging behind, continued tight supply and demand. Lithium-ion battery is the main material of lithium battery negative current collector, the performance of copper foil is directly related to the performance of lithium batteries. Compared to electronic grade copper foil, lithium copper foil on the performance, accuracy, uniformity requirements in the production equipment and processes require long-term accumulation of technology, the standard electronic-grade copper foil thickness of 12 to 70 microns, lithium copper foil thickness In the 7 to 20 microns. In addition, lithium copper foil production capacity of the existence of a long construction period, special equipment, investment, environmental protection and high pressure, electrolytic lithium copper foil production capacity expansion barriers higher. By lithium capacity expansion is lagging behind the impact of lithium-copper foil supply and demand is still outstanding.
Copper prices continue to lead the lower prices of CCL
1, copper prices continued to rise. By the lithium battery manufacturers dual 11 and double 12 stocking, lithium battery industry chain of copper foil, solvent prices rose. According to the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association data, the recent copper foil, electrolyte and other lithium battery raw material prices rose significantly, some products rose to 55%. Earlier, the Nordic shares disclosed in 16 years, the company’s copper foil product gross margin increased 10.33 percentage points, copper foil production capacity of 27100 tons / year, of which 80% of the capacity of lithium copper foil, lithium batteries occupy power lithium Foil about 1/3 of the market share.
2, copper prices to promote CCL prices. CCL is affected by the price of copper foil, the market concentration of CCL manufacturers is high, the market share of the top three market share is 14%, 11% and 11% respectively, the downstream PCB enterprises are more scattered, bargaining power is low, copper Foil prices can be smooth conduction to the CCL manufacturers. Jin Anguo disclosure, 16-year mid-year reported that the company’s total revenue of CCL products accounted for 98% of total revenue, gross margin increased 8.64%, and the first three quarters is expected to return to the mother net profit of 1.24-1.48 billion yuan, An increase of 170% -220%.
Copper and CCL continued to drive PCB industry market concentration increase, long-term good PCB manufacturers PCB manufacturers scattered, serious product homogeneity, small factories by size, capital constraints forced to price increases and loss of customers, with Scale and financial advantages of CCL have bargaining power and the ability to store goods, prices slow and will get more customers. The long term, with the continued price increases in copper foil, PCB market share will further focus on large manufacturers.
Third, investment advice
In view of the copper price is a long-term process, focusing on recommended domestic CCL manufacturers Jinan Guo Ji, Health benefits science and technology, PCB industry chain integration of super-technology companies.
Fourth, the risk warning:
1, the risk of major raw material price fluctuations.
2, the industry boom down the risk.
3, increased competition in the industry risk.